Betting Tips For March Madness

2006-03-01T09:50:00.000-08:00

Rule No. 1: Consider The Competition

"The key to winning the office pool isn't just picking which teams are likely to win the tournament, but also picking the winners of games that your colleagues don't pick," says Wolfers. "This requires you to think about which teams are likely to be overbet, and figure out which games are likely to provide easy opportunities for you to pull ahead." He says figuring out the behavior of your fellow bettors is crucial. In fact, "understanding office psychology may be more important than understanding basketball," he says. So stop being blinded by the statistics and consider your coworkers when you fill out your brackets.

Rule No. 2: Don't Bet The No. 1 Seed

According to the findings of Andrew Metrick, associate professor of finance at Wharton and author of March Madness? Strategic Behavior in NCAA Basketball Tournament Pools, NCAA tournament bettors typically overbet the No. 1 seed--of the 24 pools in his sample, no pool had less than 69% betting on a No. 1 seed--when the No. 2 seed is often an equally good opportunity. This bias is more pronounced in a smaller pool. "With just a handful of players (fewer than ten, say), the expected payoff of going with a two [seed] or maybe a three [seed] to win it all is positive," adds Evan Osborne, associate professor of economics at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio. So stop getting caught up on which team is supposed to win, and take a chance on a No. 2--over even a No. 3--seed in the office pool.

Rule No. 3: Don't Try to Pick Upsets

"In general, the [selection committee] does a pretty good job of seeding, so taking underdogs in a bracket pool is not really that good of an idea, because you magnify it as you go out," advises Paul. He says the more you try to pick the underdogs, the less likely you are to have teams left in the bracket. Instead of taking a chance on the underdog, he suggests the standard method of taking the higher seed. "It's the safest, and the one that probably gives you the most likelihood to have as many teams left as possible as the weeks go on," he explains. Jim Mahar, assistant professor of finance at St. Bonaventure University, agrees, but warns of the downside: "In doing so," he says, "you will miss much of the satisfaction--and bragging rights--of picking an upset." He likens it to investing: "This is similar to indexing versus active stock picking," he says. But if you're in it to win it, avoid the guesswork.

Rule No. 4: Don't Bet The Home Team

Osborne urges bettors not to be sentimental when they fill out their brackets. "Particularly in a pool in a place where local teams are in the tournament, there is a tendency to overestimate the quality of those teams," he says. So if you live in Big Ten country for instance, you're more likely to bet on Big Ten teams. More importantly, so are the others in your pool. So go against the grain and don't just bet for the local team.

Rule No. 5: Pick The Winner

You will almost never win the pool unless you select the tournament winner, according to Metrick's findings. So if you want a shot at the loot--or at least the bragging rights--from the office pool, concentrate on picking the tournament champion, instead of getting hung up on the first rounds.

Rule No. 6: Check Out The Point Spread

If you know little about either team that's playing in a game, Andy Weinbach, assistant professor of economics at Armstrong Atlantic State University in Savannah, Ga., suggests that bettors check out the point spread to see who the market believes is the better team. He recommends www.jimfeist.com: "[It] is a good resource for information and point spreads for all sports," he says. So take his tip, consider the point spread before you fill out your grid.

Rule No. 7: Wager The "Under"

According to Paul, when NCAA tournament bettors--those not in office pools, at least--involve themselves in totals bets (betting on whether the combined points scored by both teams will come in over or under a level set by the bookkeeper), they tend to overbet the "over." "Even though it's not as pronounced as in other sports, like professional football or basketball," says Paul, if you were to bet, that's probably where the bias lies." So take his tip and bet the "under."

Rule No. 8: Bet The Underdog

When betting on a single game, Paul, who also coauthored Market Efficiency and NCAA College Basketball Gambling, suggests you place your wager on the underdog. According to his findings, "betting the underdog appears to give the best chance for success, as bettor biases exist toward the favorite." This tip doesn't apply when you mark your grid in the office pool, but if you're placing a totals bet, stop playing it safe and take a chance on the underdog.

Rule No. 9: Bet For Pleasure

Osborne appropriately reminds bettors: "As always, bet for fun and not because you need the money."

Rule No. 10: Watch Your Wallet

Lest we forget the cardinal rule, don't bet what you don't have!

March Madness Sports Odds

Betting Tips For March Madness